Masahiko Loo was predicting a BOJ rate hike even before recent press reports suggested to him that signals are being sent that the central bank is on the verge of making this move today as inflation continues to remain above 2% and the recent 1.8% annualized drop in 1Q GDP proves to be more of a blip on the economic radar screen than a sign Japan’s economy is in a serious downturn.
He does see the BOJ’s move as an opportunistic step to shore up Japan’s battered yen. And thinks that recent inflation data support the hike as well. Ultimately he says how much and how high the yen can rise will depend not so much on what the BOJ does but what the Fed does on interest rate cuts.
Masahiko says markets are pricing in three rate cuts this year and more coming in 2025, and this will be key to how much the yen can rise and how long it can stay there. If the Fed does cut rates as market participants expect the dollar/yen rate cut could settle in around 135.
So let’s sit back and see what happens now.
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