Many economists, investors and policy makers are betting that sooner - this year - or later - 2025, the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Where they diverge is on what will be the principal drivers, conditions that finally push the the Fed to move on rates, or maybe opt to hold out even longer and not cut rates at all. Will inflation fall fast enough, far enough to get the Fed cutting rates by summer’s end? Or will inflation prove to be sticky but it will be a sudden rise in unemployment that will finally push the Fed’s rate-cutting hand? And just to put more uncertainty into the mix, what if extreme weather, intensifying geopolitical forces create shocks that rattle growth and prices? What’s an investor to do?
According to Constance Hunter, senior advisor to MacroPolicy Perspectives, it’s time to look at four of the most likely scenarios for this year and beyond to assess the economic road signs to determine which path makes the most sense. Spoiler alert: she and the team at MPP are looking for inflation to resume its slow progress to 2% after its bumpy start to the year, a first rate cut in September, and continued expansion in the economy. To me this sounds like Jay Powell’s dream come true, the proverbial soft landing. To her credit Constance takes a look at all four of her main scenarios, and what could drive them. Be ready. Take notes.
Tune in.
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