Masazumi Wakatabe is a former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan. He served under former BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda during the years the central bank was heading out of extraordinary stimulus and into normalization, and has been prescient in sensing how policy would unfold Kazuo Ueda who took over as Governor in April of 2023.
Even so, when the BOJ decided not to hike the key rate at its last meeting of the year Wakatabe like others was surprised when Ueda did not signal that rising inflation and positive growth would keep the door open to a rate hike in January or certainly by March. Among factors Ueda cited for not moving now was the need for more clarity on the strength of wages, and uncertainty over the impact of President Trump’s proposed policies on Japan’s economy.
While others interpreted Ueda’s remarks after the meeting as putting big question marks over a BOJ rate hike in January or even March, Masazumi says he still sees Ueda ready to move again as early at its meeting next month.
”My sense is that the governor…does not rule out the January hike,” He says.
“You know, that's even though he talks about we're going to have to think about the wage dynamics, ” he adds. “But you know that some (wage) numbers are coming in, so…that’s depending on those sort of early estimates, Ueda may go ahead with their interest rate hike.”
So dive in and hear what Masazumi has to say. From the coming Shunto wage negotiations to concerns the yen could head lower again, you will be better prepared to follow the BOJ as the new year gets underway.
Masazumi Wakatabe
Faculty of Economics and Political Science
Waeda University
My research interests are historical relationship between economic crises and economics and central banking in theory and in practice. Visiting fellows at Cambridge University, George Mason University, and Columbia University. Vice President of the History of Economics Society (2016 to 2017), Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (March 2018 to March 2023). Books include The Showa Depression (2004: Nikkei Prize for Excellent Book in Economics), Economic Crises and policy Responses (2009: Ishibashi Tanzan Prize), and Japan’s Great Stagnation and Abenomics (2015).
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