Nobody knows what Trumps policies will be or which of them will be enacted.
The contending voices in the MAGA camp are contradictory.
The desire to lower inflation means strong dollar and import of deflation from China and yet that conflicts with the wish to reindustrialize.
Rebuilding some remembered, familiar golden-age economy seems to require a weaker dollar to compensate for more expensive US labor or a truly massive outlay of capital to revolutionize productivity in the US with tariffs to protect US businesses while reconstruction occurs (one will expect that business welcomes protection but may not be so keen on reconstruction). One can see how this leads to dollar shortages overseas and thus to a stronger dollar while simultaneously sponsoring a huge reordering of global economic flows.
So simultaneously we need/want a stronger and weaker USD. We need/want contradictory end points.
The Treasury market needs a strong dollar to prevent interest rates from carrying off the federal budget. But this contradicts the inevitability of growing Treasury issuance and increasing debt.
These contradictions will mean a move an unspoken policy of plundering the imperial provinces. That already seems to be underway. But that won’t work for very long even though the plundered seem supine so far.
Giving up the empire and accepting 10 years of real pain seems like the only way forward that avoids collapse. But with election cycles of 2 and 4 years, 10 years of pain seems hardly like a prescription for staying in power and sustaining 10 years of directed effort.
trusting fake data is...complicated..
The Fed is not fighting inflation, the Fed is fighting..the gold price...and will loose...
DXY is over 109 , yet gold is 2680 +....,
and oil at 80$....before the next war....
Trump wants...lower rates....Both can´t happen.
Nobody knows what Trumps policies will be or which of them will be enacted.
The contending voices in the MAGA camp are contradictory.
The desire to lower inflation means strong dollar and import of deflation from China and yet that conflicts with the wish to reindustrialize.
Rebuilding some remembered, familiar golden-age economy seems to require a weaker dollar to compensate for more expensive US labor or a truly massive outlay of capital to revolutionize productivity in the US with tariffs to protect US businesses while reconstruction occurs (one will expect that business welcomes protection but may not be so keen on reconstruction). One can see how this leads to dollar shortages overseas and thus to a stronger dollar while simultaneously sponsoring a huge reordering of global economic flows.
So simultaneously we need/want a stronger and weaker USD. We need/want contradictory end points.
The Treasury market needs a strong dollar to prevent interest rates from carrying off the federal budget. But this contradicts the inevitability of growing Treasury issuance and increasing debt.
These contradictions will mean a move an unspoken policy of plundering the imperial provinces. That already seems to be underway. But that won’t work for very long even though the plundered seem supine so far.
Giving up the empire and accepting 10 years of real pain seems like the only way forward that avoids collapse. But with election cycles of 2 and 4 years, 10 years of pain seems hardly like a prescription for staying in power and sustaining 10 years of directed effort.